July 18, 2008

As the All-Star celebration has come and gone, the real fun now begins. 

Major League Baseball opens up the second half of the 2008 season today which means the stretch run of the season is in full gear. 

So many storylines have intrigued us through the first 90-plus games.  Most of the division races are still neck and neck, with a few of them boasting three teams in the race.

Players like Josh Hamilton, Edinson Volquez, Cliff Lee, Justin Duchscherer and Nate McClouth have all made a name for themselves this season.

CC Sabathia and Rich Harden changed teams and leagues and on each of their shoulders is the weight of an entire city yearning for a championship. 

Mapping out the plot for the second half of the season is not an easy thing to do.  Hell, we can barely predict the weather on a day-to-day basis.  However, isn’t it fun to try and envision what lay ahead for the next three months?  Here are the fearless predictions for the second half.


The Division Races Stay Tight

The standings show five of the six divisions locked up in close races.  The NL East has the Phillies ahead of the Mets by only ½ of a game, with the Florida Marlins still in it at 1.5 back.

If you’ve been paying attention to baseball at all this year, you know about the logjam in the AL East with the upstart Rays battling to the two giants. 

The White Sox continue to stave off the Twins in the American League Central and the National League Central is quite interesting with three teams within five games of the leader.

So what will come of these amazing races?

How about more of the same. The Phillies and Mets will go down to the final series of the season. It’s only fitting that the season end with both teams fighting it out.

Don’t count Tampa Bay out.  Look for the Rays to be in it as well until the final weekend.  The NL Central will probably be the most fun to watch in the upcoming weeks and months because St. Louis will not go away and Milwaukee is poised to make a run behind double-aces Sabathia and Ben Sheets.

My most fearless prediction:  A one game playoff in both the National League and American League after the final day of the season.


Blockbuster Deals On the Horizon

As the trade deadline draws near, there undoubtedly will be many teams in the running to grab a top notch starting pitcher as well as adding a power bat to the lineup.  However, we are often let down at the deadline as minor deals are made.

This year will be different.

Matt Holliday is the biggest name on the block and the Colorado Rockies can ill-afford to let him walk for nothing.  With his agent being the notoriously fickle Scott Boras, Holliday is going to look for a contract in the Alfonso Soriano atmosphere.

There aren’t many teams who can afford that price tag, however, one of them is the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Look for the basher to end up in Dodger Blue at the deadline as the Dodgers have parts that Colorado covets.  They have a slew of young talented players like Matt Kemp, Andre Either, Blake DeWitt and Clayton Kershaw they can use to get a deal done. 

Dunn and Griffey sounds like a bad TV cop duo.  They aren’t that, though they are big and strong and can give a lineup a shot of power. 

Ken Griffey looks like he is going to stay put because of his no trade clause.  However, Junior can ill-afford to let another year pass by without taking a shot at a ring.  With the uncertainty of the outfield for the New York Yankees, they could take a shot on Griffey to platoon in the outfield and DH. 

Adam Dunn has also been on the market for a few seasons now and seems ripe for the picking.  The Mets also have some problems with their corner outfielder, so Dunn to Flushing Meadows seems like a great fit.

The Phillies will also make a move for a big-time pitcher.  And that man will be AJ Burnett.  The Phils lack major prospects, but Burnett wants out of Toronto and the feeling seems to be mutual.  Look for Philadelphia to package whatever they can to get their hands on this flamethrower.


Josh Hamilton Will Get Hurt…but Still Knock in 150

I may seem like the bearer of bad news with this, but hear me out.

I like Josh Hamilton just as much as any fan out there.  His Home Run Derby showing was phenomenal, as was the first half of his season.  He has an extraordinary tale of redemption, making it back from the depths of a terrible drug addiction. 

However, all signs point to some sort of injury. The man plays all out every game, and that is going to take a toll on his body.  Hamilton has not played a full season since before he was drafted, so how can he be used to the rigors of a 162-game slate.

Teammate Ian Kinsler said recently during an interview “He’s in the hot tub about five minutes before the game.”  That does not bode well for Hamilton in the later stages of a long season. 

He should still knock in over 150 runs easily, however, look for him to be placed on the DL at some point in the second half.  Here’s to hoping it does not happen, because Hamilton is such a special player. 


K-Rod: 56 saves

One of the more ridiculous stats the Major League Baseball goes by is the save.  Nowadays, pitchers come in for one inning of work and voila, they are the saviors.

Francisco Rodriguez has been the uber-savior for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, grabbing 38 of them before the break.  He is well within reach of the record set by Bobby Thigpen in 1990.

Even though he is close enough to have a shot, I don’t believe he will reach that number. In the past few years several closers have come within shouting distance of the record, yet all have failed. Eric Gagne had an amazing season in 2003, saving 55 games on his way to the Cy Young Award.  Even in such an incredible year, Gagne could not get to that magical number. Guys like John Smoltz and Mariano Rivera have been on pace to do it in recent season, and neither could reach it.

Call me Mister Negative, but I just don’t see K-Rod doing it either.  Look for Rodriguez to come up just short of the record.  Saves are a weird stat and are predicated on, obviously, the closeness of a game.  The Angels could go two weeks without being in a save situation. They could lose eight straight or K-Rod could blow a few by seasons end. 

The number he gets to: 56.


The Winners!: National League

As I stated above, the races will remain tight throughout.  However, there has to be a winner. 

In the NL East, the Phillies have been the most consistent team of the three who are in the running for the division.  The Mets have already gone through a manager and the Marlins are still a very young team.  I think Philadelphia takes the Eastern Division by winning 88 games, one more than the Mets.

In the NL Central, were the most fascinating competition will be, the Cubs should have no problem holding off the Cardinals and Brewers.  However, one of these two squads will be the Wild-Card winner. 

The Brewers now have the two aces at the top and have an explosive offense.  The time is now for Milwaukee to reach their first postseason since 1982, and I believe they get there behind the rotation.

The West is having a terrible year one season removed from have two teams in the NLCS.  This season is different, but will have the same result as the pitching of the Diamondbacks will secure them the NL West title.


The Winners!: American League

How cool as it been to see the Tampa Bay Rays near or at the top of the division for nearly 100 games.  It’s one of the great stories of the entire year and every baseball fan should want this team to succeed.  I think they do just that, however, they will not win the division.

The Boston Red Sox are just too good and will take the AL East by a healthy margin.  However, with the Rays and Yankees likely fighting it out for the wild-card, the Rays will shock the world by getting into the playoffs for the first time in their existence.  Sorry New York, it just wont be your year.

In the AL Central, the Minnesota Twins have come out of nowhere to stay involved in a very close race.  They sit just 1.5 games behind the White Sox.  However, the Twins are not built for a run at the playoffs as they have a shaky rotation and now power in the lineup.  The Sox will pull away, but the Twins will remain a contender before fizzling out.

The AL West seems to be already locked up by the Angels, so this is not a hard one to predict.  My heart wants me to say that the A’s or the Rangers will take a shot at the title, yet both teams are a few pieces away from being a contender out west.  The A’s are short a power bat and the Rangers have always had pitching woes.  The Angels should have no problem winning by 10 games.


Playoffs:

NL: Phillies defeat Brewers; Cubs defeat Diamondbacks

AL: Red Sox defeat White Sox; Rays defeat Angels

NLCS: Cubs defeat Phillies

ALCS: Red Sox defeat Rays

WS: Cubs defeat Red Sox

Champion: Chicago Cubs